Technology can help simulate a crisis, but people decide how to react, Fernando Alarcón, Hapag-Lloyd, told delegates on the closing panel of TOC Americas in Cartagena, “Supply chain in an uncertain world”. Six speakers, from a marketplace, a carrier, two logistics operators, a cargo consultancy and a retailer, set out how they plan, insure and automate against disruption without losing that judgement.
Fernando Alarcón, Hapag-Lloyd
Alarcón said artificial intelligence has become useful for running scenarios, including when drought-related restrictions limit daily crossings and the line has to work out how to route a ship to arrive faster. The tool runs the numbers, he said, but it does not make the decision. Alarcón also pointed to the value of a supplier network kept active even without current business, so that in a crisis someone can call on a partner who is not necessarily under contract at that moment. “Technology is going to help us. But that’s what we are for: the people,” he said.
Elsa Muñoz, AliExpress (Alibaba Group)
Muñoz said how fast a shipment moves depends on the market: her platform depends on consolidation at warehouses near Chinese ports before a decision is made on air or sea freight, so speed cannot always be promised in the way it once was. Over the past three years, she said, wars, conflicts and natural disruption have added new variables on top of cost and delivery time. “The time factor is 100% still important, but now there’s also the factor of resilience, quality, costs,” she said.
Carlos Palacios, GEODIS Colombia
Palacios described a recent squeeze on space from the Far East in which ocean freight rates rose from $2,000 to $9,000 per container before settling around $6,500, as clients who delayed booking space kept waiting for rates to fall. Clients who had instead signed medium to long-term agreements with guaranteed space weathered the disruption far better, he said. “The difference between a good strategy and one that isn’t is in the execution,” Palacios said, adding that a logistics operator’s role now extends across a client’s whole supply ecosystem, not just moving cargo.
Milena Jiménez, Grupo CargOK
Jiménez, speaking as a cargo consultant, said she is usually called in only after a loss has already happened. She described a 40-foot container split into two 20-foot boxes after delays from China: one arrived in Buenaventura the day of an earthquake and sat for a further 30 days, during which humidity absorbers rated for only 20 days failed to protect sensitive cargo inside. The answer, she said, is to assess insurance cover and cargo protection before a shipment leaves, not after. “The best crisis psychologist is the one who avoids the crisis,” Jiménez said.
Gonzalo Córdova, Falabella Group
Córdova argued against trying to reassure customers mid-crisis, saying the priority instead is reacting fast with better information once a problem, such as a late vessel or bad weather, has already happened. He said his recent focus has been using technology to speed up decisions on which cargo to prioritise, including putting a GPS tracker on every Falabella Group package for real-time visibility. “Information is more power and lets you make better decisions in a crisis,” he said.
Xavier Montes, Dollar City
Montes said Dollar City’s fixed-price model means the company cannot pass on cost increases to customers, so it has to reshape its own supply chain instead: investing in staff, long-term supplier alliances and automation across markets that now include Colombia, Central America, Peru and Mexico. He said the business looks for suppliers who offer visibility into problems before they occur rather than reacting once they hit, and tries to keep solutions simple rather than complex. “Flexibility in times of crisis is fundamental,” Montes said.